League One Might Be Nice for a Holiday...

LEAGUE ONE MIGHT BE NICE FOR A HOLIDAY...

BUT YOU WOULDN’T WANT TO LIVE THERE

I predict the next lot of former Premier League clubs plummeting towards the third tier, and six other relegation candidates.

“We’re all going on a League One tour,” I once heard a bunch of Sheffield United supporters sing on a train back over the Pennines from Manchester.

En route from Old Trafford - where I’d watched the FA Youth Cup Final between themselves and Manchester United - I was amused at both their arrogance and ignorance as to the perils which lay ahead of them following their relegation from The Championship in 2010/11, just four years after dropping out of the top-flight.

I knew how hard it was for a so-called ‘big club’ to get out of League One. I’d watched my beloved Wednesday struggle on separate occasions after going down, only to recover the season after - twice promoted at the second time of asking.

But United coped well initially, and were it not for a set of outstanding circumstances – top-scorer Ched Evans jailed for rape with three games to go being one – those Stone Island scallies from the train would have had the last laugh.

Instead, it was Owls fans sharing the sniggers, as Wednesday clawed their way back from eight points behind – having played two games more – to gain promotion, while their Steel City rivals lost to Huddersfield on penalties in the play-off final.

Further play-off despair (it’s becoming a recurring theme at the Lane) in 2012/13, kept the Blades in the third tier for at least another season. Tour of League One? You could manage at least four tours of Afghanistan in that time.

Fortunately (for us Sheffielders), you don’t have to be from South Yorkshire to qualify for the League One club. The likes of Wolves, Leeds United and Manchester City have all slipped in to the third tier within years of falling out of the Premier League.

And with more money than ever being spent on top flight transfer fees and player wage bills, if you can’t bounce back within a few seasons of going down, the chances of you dropping even further down the ladder grow ever more likely.

Others, notably; Nottingham Forest, Leicester, Norwich and Southampton have suffered the same fate. Not to mention Portsmouth - currently rebuilding from the bottom in League Two, five years since they lifted the F.A. Cup.

With a quarter of the season already underway and league tables starting to indicate who may end up where come the end of the campaign, I've done a bit of internet research (not the sort I’m usually prone to, that causes viruses) to see which clubs could be next to walk the plank to League One.

The Big Boys

Birmingham City

The Blues are in to their third straight season outside the top flight and that tally will only increase the way they’ve been going of late.

The thumping of fellow strugglers Sheffield Wednesday and Millwall appeared to have eased the pressure on manager Lee Clark, but the Blues have blown mostly cold for the majority of the campaign so far, sitting just two points above the drop zone in 20^th place.

Only three first-team players remain from their time in the top flight; Colin Doyle and David Murphy are two, while the other, Serbian international Nikola Zigic, is reportedly still earning around £60,000-a-week having penned a four-year-deal at the club prior to their relegation.

As a result, the club had no choice but to sell star players Jack Butland and Curtis Davies in the summer and terminate the contract of last season’s top scorer, Marlon King – probably the first time he’s been sacked for something that hasn’t resulted in prison.

There are currently five loan players on the Blues’ books, a market in which their manager will be forced to utilise given the lack of funds at his disposal.

Bolton Wanderers

It took Bolton until the New Year to properly get going following their relegation in 2011/12, yet only a last minute winner from Leicester City against Nottingham Forest kept the Trotters out of the Championship play-offs come May.

But Dougie Freedman’s side are early strugglers again this year, despite keeping the core of their squad together – Marc Tierney and Jermaine Beckford replacing high-earners Marcos Alonso and Kevin Davies, who departed on free transfers – winning just once so far.

Their biggest loss perhaps, is powerful centre-half Craig Dawson who was instrumental at both ends (this is not a joke about flatulence), netting four goals in 16 appearances on loan from West Bromwich Albion.

As they themselves proved last season, a good run of form can soon catapult you towards the upper echelons of the division, but Bolton relied on January reinforcements last time around and with purse strings tightening at the Reebok Stadium – the club announced debts of £136Million this time last year – this coming transfer window is unlikely to prove quite as fruitful.

Middlesbrough

A 4-0 win over Doncaster on Friday was just what the doctor ordered following the sacking of Tony Mowbary during the week. Summer signing Albert Adomah kept up his scoring streak with a brace to lift them to 15^th in the table.

Among the favourites for the Boro hot-seat are Mike Phelan, Tony Pulis and Ian Holloway, but neither should expect huge funds now the club’s parachute payments have ended.

A new boss can often galvanise an underperforming team such as Middlesbrough, though it did little to halt the slide of Bristol City and Wolves last season, both were relegated despite midway changes.

Boro are notorious for their New Year loss of form as it is – they won just three league matches between January and May 2013 – and their fans will be hoping for a reversal of fortunes this time around.

The likes of Adomah, Jonathan Woodgate and Grant Leadbitter are top players at this level, though plenty of a similar ability have gone down in recent years; Former top flight figures such as Kevin Doyle, Jamie O’Hara and Bakary Sako (top flight in France at least!) remain on the books of Wolves in League One, for example.

The Usual Suspects

Barnsley

Getting the best out of the ‘Derry Pele’ - also known as former Celtic winger, Paddy McCourt - holds the key to the South Yorkshire side's survival hopes. His stunning individual effort helped the Tykes to all three points against Middlesbrough ten days ago before causing all sorts of problems for the Wednesday defence in Saturday’s derby draw at Oakwell.

More goals from strikers Chris O’Grady and Marcus Pedersen – borrowed from Dutch outfit, Vitesse Arnhem – will also be needed if David Flitcroft’s side are planning to continue their record of most seasons spent in the second tier.

Sheffield Wednesday

The 2013/14 season has yielded yet another new low for the Owls (how many more can there be?), still without a win after twelve games. Only the top seven have lost fewer matches than Dave Jones’ side (four), but their failure to turn draws in to wins, especially against the teams around them, has left them rooted to the foot of the table.

With no takeover imminent and chairman Milan Mandaric unwilling to part with more cash (he’s spent upwards of £25Million pounds rescuing the club from the brink), many of the club’s loyal fanbase have began calling for the manager’s head. They need wins, and fast.

Yeovil Town

Gary Johnson told his side during pre-season they’d be underdogs in each of their 46 games this season. The Somerset strugglers used that as motivation for surprise wins against Millwall and Nottingham Forest, they even fought back to draw at Hillsborough despite going down to ten men shortly before half-time.

Five-goal midfielder Ed Upson (that’s not a touchline instruction, by the way - it's his name) has shone so far for the Glovers, but their lack of quality in other areas will eventually tell.

The Prematurely Overestimated

Charlton Athletic

Somehow managed to finish ninth in 2012/13, but like Wednesday they've struggled in their second season back in the Championship. Manager Chris Powell is the longest-serving in the division but could come under pressure should they slip in to the bottom three.

Doncaster Rovers

The new boys have carried on their momentum from last season but it rarely lasts – see Huddersfield Town last season. Have struggled since Federico Macheda returned to Manchester United.

Millwall

The tram-trashers from Bermondsey are currently floating four points above the drop zone, but haven’t improved much since last season where the goals of Chris Wood during his three-month loan, coincided with the Lions’ best spell.

Do you agree with my selections? Leave your comments below or get in touch on Twitter via @My_Big_Tackle.

In Defence of Dithering Dave

IN DEFENCE OF ‘DITHERING DAVE’

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lex Ferguson fathered many a great Manchester United side; From Bruce, Keane and Cantona to Vidic, Ronaldo and Rooney - via Giggs, Scholes and Solskjaer, he ensured that while one team prepared to fly the nest, another was already being conceived.

The biology wasn’t always spot on, an occasional ugly kid would fall from the womb - the Klebersons, the Djemba-Djembas, the Juan Sebastien Verons to name a few - But Daddy Ferguson would usually triumph through a bigger, stronger, more beautiful bairn next time around. Unfortunately for David Moyes, his current side has few of those remaining.

That sounds silly given that the Red Devils waltzed comfortably, in the end, to their record-breaking 20^th league title just five months ago, but with several key players and a handful more still struggling to reach their potential it’s easy to see why.

Three of United’s first-choice back four – Rio Ferdinand, Patrice Evra, and Vidic – as well as Michael Carrick, one of last season’s stand-out performers, are entering their early/mid thirties and while the likes of Chris Smalling and Phil Jones may develop in to adequate replacements, Moyes is hardly spoilt for choice in Carrick’s position.

Illustration by Ryan Cusick (@CusickRyan)

Both Tom Cleverley and Anderson have flattered to deceive alongside him in central midfield (Darren Fletcher is still recovering from illness), forcing the new boss to bust £27million in his old club’s direction for Marouane Fellaini – this proceeded the somewhat laughable pursuit of Thiago Alcantara, and in particular, his former teammate Cesc Fabregas.

Perhaps he wouldn’t have had to, had Ferguson done more to prevent Paul Pogba from leaving for Juventus in 2012 - a player who, according to recent reports, is now a £40million target for rivals, Chelsea.

In him, they had a youngster with all the potential to become the complete midfielder – an eye for goal like Robson, the ability to pass like Scholes, combative like Keane. He left, in his words, because Ferguson refused to play him ‘even though there were no other midfielders’.

A point underlined by the Scot’s decision to talk a then 37-year-old Scholes in to putting on his tackling boots for the final time, after initially hanging them up the previous summer. Of course, there were ‘other midfielders’ - like Anderson, who was overlooked despite costing the club a substantial, eight-figure-fee. He was supposedly one for the future – but it’s been six years.

Ferguson’s sides have always been a force from out wide, whether through the pace of a pre-adulterous Giggs or the craft of David Beckham – Dad of the Year nominee. But this side is probably the weakest we've seen in wide areas, and has been since the departure of Ronaldo to Real Madrid in 2009.

Nani, despite penning a new five-year-deal just weeks ago, still doesn’t command a regular first team spot after more than half a decade, while bizarrely beefed-up Ashley Young’s continues to frustrate the club’s following with his inconsistency. Antonio Valencia, the same.

Shinji Kagawa hasn’t yet had a look-in under Moyes' tenure - nor was he a regular under Ferguson - though arguably, his best position is as a ‘number 10’, a role currently occupied by the in-form Rooney. Good  player, but was he really the signing United required at the time?

It’s a club which will always produce talented youngsters - Adnan Januzaj being the latest (don’t tell Jack Wilshere) – but I can’t help but feel that Ferguson’s recruitment of those aforementioned has stalled the transition between those on the decline (Ferdinand/Evra/Carrick) and those coming through (Januzaj/Jesse Lingard/Will Keane).

Fergie, of course, has got a lot more right than he has wrong over the years. When he didn’t get it right, he’d make sure he fixed it next time around. Unfortunately for Moyes, this time around it was he who’d be left to pick up the pieces.

The 50-year-old(and United)’s progress has also been hindered by the departure of Chief Executive David Gill with Ferguson. This left two relatively inexperienced people (in terms of spotlight at least), Moyes and Ed Woodward (Gill’s replacement), in positions of extreme pressure. The former Preston boss also declined the opportunity to retain Sir Alex’s coaching staff, though this is commonplace for most new managers when moving clubs.

Until he achieves substantial silverware at Old Trafford, Moyes will always be the untrustworthy step-dad – a tag he’ll find even harder to shake given the tools he was left. He needed as smooth a transition as possible, unfortunately what he got was far from it.

Himself however, left his successor (Roberto Martinez) in good hands, with Everton in perhaps the best shape they’ve been, both on and off the pitch, for decades. Few Evertonians flinched at the sale of Fellaini, with players such as James McCarthy, Gareth Barry and Romelu Lukaku coming in to the squad at his expense.

They even kept hold of talisman Leighton Baines – with minimal fuss – when he became subject of a bid from his old boss down the M62. Yet, despite an encouraging start to Martinez' tenure, the Toffees will be lucky if they better last season's position under Moyes (sixth).

Ferguson will be forever lauded by most, Moyes perhaps won’t. But sometimes it’s worth considering the bigger picture.

@My_Big_Tackle

Loan Repayment

LOAN REPAYMENT

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hey’ve called for feeder clubs, B Teams and a minimum number of home-grown players in matchday squads. But Andros Townsend – man of the match on his international debut on Friday - is living proof that a successful system is already in place, it just needs a bit more trust.

It was his determined run down the right-flank which fashioned England’s opener, before he unleashed an unstoppable 20-yard-strike of his own to all but seal the win which moved Roy Hodgson’s side to the summit of Group H.

His pace, power and perseverance – his every touch met by a mass of Montenegrin defenders – should be enough to cement his spot in tonight’s starting line-up, and leave the injured Theo Walcott seriously worried about an extended stay in the ITV studio.

The 22-year-old joined Queens Park Rangers on loan in January, borrowed from boyhood club Tottenham Hotspur to save former boss Harry Redknapp’s new side from the drop.

Rangers’ problems were perhaps too grave for a man with only five Premier League appearances to his name, but a string of assured performances provided him the perfect platform to push for the first team at his parent club.

Ok, there was a bit of luck involved too – Gareth Bale departed and Aaron Lennon got injured – but rather than delve in to the market for more wide-men, manager Andre Villas-Boas handed a starting role to a player who’d been waiting four years for a chance.

Since signing pro-forms at Spurs, Townsend has been farmed out on eight separate occasions to teams lower down the football ladder. He represented the likes of Leyton Orient, Yeovil Town and Milton Keynes Dons in the third tier before Redknapp returned to resuscitate a career that seemed to be going round in circles.

Who knows where Townsend would have ended up were it not for his old boss? I’ll hazard a guess at Tottenham’s reserves followed by yet another loan to The Championship, where he had spells with Watford, Birmingham City and Leeds United. A permanent move to Millwall reportedly fell through in 2011.

There are dozens in the same position: Under 21 internationals Wilfried Zaha and Nathaniel Chalobah flourished in the Football League last year yet one has been rarely used since joining Manchester United in the summer, while the other is on an emergency loan at Nottingham Forest.

After starring on loan for Watford in 2012/13, Chalobah returned to Chelsea in the summer only to find himself back in the second tier following the sale of Adlene Guedioura to Crystal Palace.

The Eagles forked out around three million pounds for the Algerian while Chalobah -surely a cheaper, albeit temporary alternative – sat around watching while Jose Mourinho stuffed his shopping trolley full of midfielders as if he were on Supermarket Sweep.

Naturally The Blues don’t want to sell the 18-year-old, but a season-long loan could have done him the world of good, particularly in a World Cup year.

Playing in The Championship may get you games, but will it get you noticed? By your club – perhaps, but you won’t find Hodgson sat inside the City Ground watching you strut your stuff on a nippy night in November.

The transfer window is flawed in many ways, perhaps no more so than when a player finds himself out of favour post-deadline day. They are left with two options: rot in the reserves or drop down a division.

Of course the latter can benefit some players, take Ross Barkley for example, who spent time with both Leeds United and Sheffield Wednesday in 2012/13. He’s now an established member of the Everton engine room and made his England debut back in August.

Roberto Martinez has shown faith in his Scouse starlet and is being duly rewarded. Another manager may have sent him back to The Championship.

Townsend is one of six players who featured in Friday’s victory to have benefitted from first team football at another Premier League club.

Joe Hart used a loan spell at Birmingham to pinch back his place from the experienced Shay Given, Kyle Walker and James Milner spent time on the other side of the second city with Aston Villa (on loan from Spurs and Newcastle United respectively) while Jack Wilshere and Daniel Sturridge have both been borrowed by Bolton Wanderers.

The players are good enough; they just need the platform to prove it.